Generational change in Congress is coming, but it won’t fix everything

By Layla Zaidane, Opinion Contributor | The Hill

Turnover is coming to Washington. In less than two weeks, voters will elect what is expected to be one of the largest freshman classes of the century. It could also be one of the youngest. 

For the first time, more than one-third of the candidates who filed to run for Congress are millennials or members of Gen Z, according to On the Rise, a new analysis from Future Caucus, the organization I lead. In 2022, it was one in six. Millennials now outnumber every other generation in Senate races.

This surge of younger candidates is no mystery. Only about 10 to 15 percent of Americans approve of Congress, and roughly eight in 10 people of all parties support age limits for its members. Of the 11 incumbents who lost their primaries this year, six were defeated by younger challengers, three of whom were under 35 years old — for example, 29-year-old Melat Kiros, who defeated 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette of Colorado. 

Young Americans aren’t just demanding change from the sidelines — they’re volunteering to create it themselves. As one millennial state legislator told me, “I got mad. So instead of continuing to get angry, I decided to get elected.”

Running, though, is not the same as winning. The younger the candidate, the less likely they are to reach Election Day. Our research found that just 21 percent of Gen Z candidates and 30 percent of millennials made the general election ballot, compared with 41 percent of Gen Xers and 45 percent of baby boomers. In Senate races, the drop-off is steeper still.

One possible explanation? The new generation is testing party lines. Mirroring the growing independence of Gen Z voters, Gen Z candidates are the most likely to run outside the two major parties. One in six filed as a third-party or unaffiliated candidate, most of them as independents. While it may be impacting candidates’ chances for now, parties that want the next generation’s talent should read that as a warning. 

The surest path to the ballot runs through the statehouse, but very few young candidates are taking it. About two in three current and former state legislators who ran for Congress this year made it to the general election, compared with about one in three of those who have never served. Yet only 9 percent of millennial candidates and fewer than 2 percent of Gen Z candidates have that experience.  

That edge matters more than ever. After mid-decade redistricting, a full 85 percent of House races are rated safe for one party. That means in most districts, the primary is the real contest, and knowing how to navigate filing deadlines, petition signatures and local coalitions counts.

It matters after Election Day, too. Nearly half of today’s Congress started in a statehouse, where lawmakers learn to write a bill, count votes and work with people who see the world differently. The Center for Effective Lawmaking found that members of state Future Caucuses — bipartisan groups of young legislators — are 24 percent more effective at advancing legislation than comparable lawmakers in other states. Not only can serving at the state level help aspiring congressional candidates win, it can also help them govern.

I know “serve in your statehouse first” can sound a lot like “wait your turn,” but it isn’t. Most state legislators serve part time, keep their day jobs and win by knocking on doors. It is about as far from the Washington establishment as elected office gets. 

But still, a younger candidate pool isn’t automatically a more representative one. Men outnumber women about three to one among congressional candidates today. Among Gen Z, more than four in five candidates are men — the widest gap of any generation. Even among challengers with state legislative experience, men outnumber women nearly three to one.

We can’t assume generational change will fix this on its own. Our research on why state lawmakers leave office points to forces that also keep people from running in the first place, like threats to their families’ safety, low pay, thin staff support and partisanship that makes problem-solving harder. Those forces fall hardest on women, and all of them are fixable.

Our political parties should recruit young people, especially young women, for city councils, school boards and statehouses — not just because local politics still matters deeply, but also because these offices are the surest route to a Congress that works. We should pay state legislators enough to ensure that service isn’t reserved only for those who can afford it. We must treat threats against public officials as the crimes they are. 

Whoever wins in November, the bench is deep, and it is young. Let’s make sure it arrives ready to govern.