On the Rise 2024

The first edition of On the Rise was published in 2020 as Millennials on the Rise. The biannual, election-year report analyzes a wide range of demographic data—including but not exclusive to age group, generation, gender, and political-party affiliation—on candidates for Congress, with an emphasis on generational trends. The report is the only one of its kind and informs the work of academics, journalists, advocates, and policymakers.

A rising tide of young public servants has American political leadership poised to become more diverse, energetic, and future-focused than ever before.

At the state level, Gen Z and millennial lawmakers have not just shown potential, but have led meaningful policy successes. In 2023, this cohort introduced 40% of all bipartisan bills signed into law, despite accounting for only 25% of all state lawmakers. Their determination to transcend toxic polarization and make positive change for voters portends significant potential benefits in Congress, where nearly half of all members once served in their state legislature. 

Approximately 1 in 4 candidates is a millennial or Gen Zer.

• There are 241 millennials and Gen Zers on the general election ballot.
• A 79% increase compared to 123 millennial candidates in the 2020 general election.
• More than 1 in 3 state legislators on the ballot for Congress in November are millennials.
• Younger candidates were disproportionately eliminated from their congressional races prior to the general election.
• No generation or age group is dominated by a single political party. However, younger candidates are: 42% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 29% unaffiliated or third-party.

DATA

The On the Rise 2024 report utilizes data collected from KnowWho Candidate Data Service, the most comprehensive data set available on candidates running for federal and state elections. KnowWho editors have updated this dataset on a weekly basis since November 2023; updates will continue through November 5, 2024.

For On the Rise 2024, Future Caucus identified a total of 2,983 candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate (hereafter “House” and “Senate,” respectively). Of that total in 2024, there were 2,764 candidates for the House and 510 candidates for the Senate.

Data included in this report were last updated on September 11, 2024.

DATA COMPLETENESS

Candidates for the House were collected for all U.S. states and territories, while candidates for the Senate were collected only for states with Senate elections happening in 2024. For a full list of states and territories included in the analysis, please see Appendix A.

CANDIDATE AGE DATA

Exact age data can be difficult to collect, as it requires an individual’s exact birthdate, which is often not available online nor required for candidate filing forms. In some cases, the team identified either only the birth month and year or only the birth year.

This information was collected using a boolean search—initially of the entire web—using data points such as candidates’ names and locations. Ballotpedia and VoteSmart were the leading sources of candidates’ ages. LinkedIn, news articles, and Facebook pages were used as secondary when information was unavailable on Ballotpedia or VoteSmart, the leading sources of candidates’ ages.

In some cases, the Future Caucus researchers could identify a candidate’s graduation year from either high school or college/university. In these cases, the team carefully read candidate biographies to determine if the candidate took a gap year before or during college/university, or served in the military. If either of the former caveats were confirmed, the team would seek additional birth year identifiers. When candidate information was verified, the team subtracted 18 from high school graduation years and 221 from university graduation years. Where unable to confirm using additional sources, the team coded the candidate’s birthdate information as ‘missing,’ and that candidate was not included in the dataset of candidates with age information.

Overall, the research team was able to find candidate age information for 70.5% (2,103) of all congressional candidates (Table 2), 71.4% (1,821) of House candidates (Table 3), and 65.0% (282) of Senate candidates (Table 4).

CANDIDATE PARTY

Candidate party affiliation data was collected by KnowWho for all candidates and has a 100% completion rate.

CANDIDATE GENDER

Candidate gender data was collected by KnowWho for all candidates and has a 100% completion rate.

Candidate gender is based on the binary male and female categories provided in the KnowWho dataset.